ABSTRACT
Objective To create a risk assessment indicator system for re-establishment of imported malaria. Methods The risk assessment indicator system for re-establishment of imported malaria was preliminarily constructed through literature review and thematic discussions. A total of 26 malaria control experts were selected to carry out a two-round Delphi consultation of the indicator system. The active coefficient, authority coefficient and coordination coefficient of the experts and the coefficient of variation on each indicator were calculated for indicator screening and the weight of each indicator was calculated. The reliability of the indicator system was evaluated using Cronbach’s coefficient α, and the content validity of the indicator system was evaluated using the authority coefficient of the expert, while the structural validity of the indicator system was evaluated using Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test and factor analysis. Results Two rounds of Delphi expert consultations were completed by 23 malaria control experts, and a risk assessment indicator system for re-establishment of imported malaria was constructed, including 3 primary indicators, 7 secondary indicators, and 21 tertiary indicators. The active coefficient (100.00% vs. 88.46%; P < 0.01) and coordination coefficient of the expert (0.372 vs. 0.286; P < 0.01) were significantly greater in the second round of the Delphi expert consultation than in the first round. After the second round of the Delphi expert consultation, the authority coefficient of the experts ranged from 0.757 to 0.930 on each indicator, and the coefficients of variation were 0.098 to 0.136, 0.112 to 0.276 and 0.139 to 0.335 for the primary, secondary and tertiary indicators, respectively. The overall Cronbach’s coefficient α of the indicator system was 0.941, and there were significant differences in the KMO values for primary (KMO value = 0.523; χ2 = 18.192, P < 0.05), secondary (KMO value = 0.694, χ2 = 51.499, P < 0.01) and tertiary indicators (KMO value = 0.519; χ2 = 477.638, P < 0.01), while the cumulative contribution rate of six principal components in the tertiary indicators was 84.23%. The normalized weights of three primary indicators of the source of infection, transmission condition and control capability were 0.337, 0.333 and 0.329, and the three secondary indicators with the greatest normalized weights included the number of imported cases and malaria parasite species (0.160), introduction of imported cases in China and medical care seeking (0.152), vector species and density (0.152), while the five tertiary indicators with the greatest normalized weights included the malaria parasite species of imported cases (0.065), vector populations (0.064), and the time interval from onset to medical care seeking (0.059), number of imported cases (0.056), and the time interval from medical care seeking to definitive diagnosis (0.055). Conclusions A risk assessment indicator system for re-establishment of imported malaria is successfully created, which provides insights into the assessment of the risk of re-establishment of imported malaria and management of key high-risk factors in malaria-eliminated areas.
ABSTRACT
Objective To understand the density, populations and habitats of malaria vector Anopheles in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2019, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the countermeasures to tackle the risk of local transmission of imported malaria in the province. Methods The malaria vector Anopheles density and populations were monitored using human bait trapping and light trapping techniques in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2019, and all captured Anopheles was morphologically identified and counted. In addition, the distribution of Anopheles habitats was investigated. Results During the period from 2005 through 2019, the malaria vector Anopheles density increased from early June in Guizhou Province, peaked on early July and then declined, which appeared a single peak. The greatest Anopheles density was seen on early August, 2018 [57.34 mosquitoes/(person-night)], and the lowest density was found on late October, 2009 [1.29 mosquitoes/(person-night)]. The annual mean Anopheles density slowly reduced from 17.91 mosquitoes/(person-night) in 2005 to 12.34 mosquitoes/(person-night) in 2012, with a 38.02% reduction (χ2trend = 115.04, P < 0.01), while the annual mean Anopheles density showed a tendency towards a rise from 2017 to 2019 (χ2trend = 420.00, P < 0.01). The malaria vector Anopheles was captured during the period between 19 : 00 and 7 : 00 of the next day in Guizhou Province from 2017 to 2019, with the overall density appearing a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline, and the Anopheles activity was highly frequent during the period between 19 : 00 and 21 : 00. The malaria vector Anopheles was monitored for 938 times using the light trapping method in Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2019, and a total of 52 781 Anopheles mosquitoes were captured, including 49 705 An. sinensis, 804 An. minimus, 238 An. anthropophagus, and 2 034 other Anopheles mosquitoes, with a significant difference seen in the Anopheles composition (χ2 = 165.68, P < 0.01). From 2017 to 2019, a total of 24 557 Anopheles mosquitoes were captured in human housings, outdoors and livestock housings in Guizhou Province, with 67.65% captured in livestock housings and 12.01% in human housings, and there was a significant difference in the number of Anopheles mosquitoes captured from the three types of habitats (χ2 = 55.04, P < 0.01). An. sinensis, An. minimus and An. anthropophagus were captured form all three types of habitats, in which 98.07% was An. sinensis, and 0.09% was An. anthropophagus. Conclusions The population structure of malaria vector Anopheles has changed in historically malaria-endemic areas of Guizhou Province, and An. sinensis has replaced An. minimus and An. anthropophagus to become the predominant malaria vector. The malaria vector Anopheles density has shown a tendency towards a rise in Guizhou Province during the recent years, and there have been a rise in the type and number of Anopheles mosquitoes, leading to a potential risk of local transmission of imported malaria. Long-term, persistent and extensive surveillance of malaria vectors is recommended in Guizhou Province.